Under the background of double carbon target, it has become the consensus of all circles to vigorously develop new energy industry.China is the second largest energy consumer in the world after the United States. With the rapid economic development, China's total energy consumption continues to grow, ranking in the forefront of the world for many years, and the growth momentum has not diminished. However, the contradiction between the increase of energy demand and the shortage of conventional fossil energy supply is increasingly prominent, and it is imperative to develop new energy industry. The development of new energy industry has two dimensions: resource side and application side. From the resource side, it mainly includes the development of renewable energy such as solar energy, wind energy, nuclear energy, tidal energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy and hydrogen energy; From the application point of view, it mainly includes vigorously developing new energy vehicles, reducing environmental pollution and import dependence on oil resources.
Prospect of industrial trend: Photovoltaic and wind power have just entered the parity era, and new energy vehicles have turned to product-driven.1. New energy vehicles will achieve the goal of 2025 ahead of schedule.The new energy industry is an important sector to achieve the goal of double carbon, and relevant departments have also formulated specific long-term goals for the new energy industry.On October 24, 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job of Carbon Neutralization in peak carbon dioxide emissions (hereinafter referred to as the Opinions), which stated that by 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 20%; By 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 25%, and carbon dioxide emissions will peak; By 2060, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80%, and the goal of carbon neutrality will be successfully achieved. The Opinions also proposes to promote energy-saving and low-carbon vehicles, accelerate the development of new energy and clean energy vehicles and boats, promote intelligent transportation, promote the electrification of railways, promote the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and promote the normalization of the use of shore power by ships berthing in Hong Kong. Accelerate the construction of a convenient, efficient and moderately advanced charging and replacing network system. Improve the energy efficiency standards of fuel vehicles and boats, improve the energy efficiency labeling system of transportation equipment, and accelerate the elimination of old vehicles and boats with high energy consumption and high emissions.In terms of renewable energy, on June 1, 2022, the Tenth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development (hereinafter referred to as the Plan) jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration clearly proposed to accelerate the construction of seven new energy bases on land, focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, such as the upper reaches of the Yellow River and Hexi Corridor. Focus on building five offshore wind power base clusters such as Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta and Minnan; Focus on the deployment of urban rooftop photovoltaic action, "photovoltaic+"comprehensive utilization action and other nine major actions. In terms of specific actions, according to the Plan, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the installation rate of distributed photovoltaics in new industrial parks and large public buildings will reach more than 50%. Promote the comprehensive utilization of "photovoltaic+"in transportation fields such as new energy vehicle charging piles, facilities along high-speed railways, expressway service areas, and information industries such as 5G base stations and data centers.In terms of new energy vehicles, in early November 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued the Development Plan of New Energy Vehicle Industry (2021-2035), which proposed that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles would reach about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles. The data shows that in the first half of 2022, the penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger cars (that is, the proportion of sales) has reached 23.99%. In 2022, the target of 20% sales of new energy vehicles will be achieved ahead of schedule, so some insiders suggest that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2025 should be appropriately raised.2. Photovoltaic and wind power have initially entered the era of parity, and the penetration rate will accelerate.For a long time in the past, the photovoltaic and wind power industries relied more on subsidies. The fundamental reason was that in the early stage of industry development, the cost of electricity remained high, which could not be compared with the cost of large-scale coal-fired electricity.With the continuous expansion of the industry scale, the continuous improvement of the upstream and downstream industrial chains and the gradual improvement of power generation efficiency, the cost of China's photovoltaic and wind power industries has been rapidly reduced, and it is no longer far away to achieve parity online (when photovoltaic and wind power are transmitted to the power grid, the price is the same as that of thermal power and hydropower). At present, some photovoltaic and wind power projects have achieved parity online. In August, 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Announcing the Parity Access Project of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2020" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), which pointed out that in combination with the information submitted by the provincial energy authorities, the installed capacity of the parity access project of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will be 11,396,700 kilowatts and 33,050,600 kilowatts in 2020. In June 2021, the Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Issues Related to the On-grid Electricity Price Policy for New Energy in 2021 stipulated that from 2021, the central government will no longer subsidize the newly filed centralized photovoltaic power stations, industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic projects and newly approved onshore wind power projects, and will implement cheap internet access.For some photovoltaic and wind power projects, the central financial subsidies have been withdrawn, while the local subsidies still exist, but they are also in the stage of gradual withdrawal. This reflects that China's photovoltaic and wind power have initially entered the era of parity. Cheap Internet access is of great significance for accelerating the increase of the proportion of renewable energy. For renewable energy, only by getting rid of subsidies can we truly realize commercialization and use market forces to grow spontaneously. Time Business School believes that with the gradual realization of cheap Internet access, photovoltaic and wind power are crossing the turning point of commercialization, and the penetration rate will accelerate. This trend can also be seen from the rapid growth of installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in the past two years.Although in recent years, photovoltaic has been affected by the rise of raw materials, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of kilowatt-hour electricity and a delay in the progress of affordable internet access, in the long run, the general trend of declining cost of kilowatt-hour electricity has not changed, and affordable internet access will eventually be realized.3. The explosion of new energy storage plays a key role in the energy structure reform.Energy storage is widely used, which plays an important role in power system, including power generation side, power grid side and user side. On the power generation side, the energy storage device can effectively solve the unstable, intermittent and uncontrollable problems of new energy generation, and in addition, energy storage can avoid the losses caused by frequent start-up and stop of conventional generator sets. On the power grid side, energy storage can realize peak load shedding, frequency modulation and voltage regulation, ensure power supply reliability and improve flexibility.Photovoltaic (PV) and wind power are unstable forms of power generation, which are affected by the changes of sunlight and wind power, and have poor stability, causing a great burden to the power grid. Abandoning light and wind is a phenomenon that occurs when the photovoltaic and wind power systems generate too much power in a certain period of time and the power grid cannot bear it, resulting in a certain waste of resources. From the stability point of view, if the stability of photovoltaic and wind power is not solved, it will be difficult to become the main power source. Taking photovoltaic as an example, it can only provide electricity during sunny days, and it is difficult to provide sufficient electricity at night and cloudy days. Obviously, it cannot be the main power source and can only be used as a supplementary means of power generation.There are various ways of energy storage, including physical energy storage (pumped storage, compressed air energy storage and flywheel energy storage), electrical energy storage (super capacitor energy storage and superconducting energy storage), electrochemical energy storage (various secondary batteries, including lead-acid batteries, lithium-ion batteries, sodium-sulfur batteries and flow batteries, etc.). At present, the most mature energy storage method is pumped storage. Its basic principle is to pump water as a liquid energy medium from a low-elevation reservoir to a high-elevation reservoir by using excess power when the power grid is low. When the power grid is in peak load, the water in the high-elevation reservoir flows back to the lower reservoir to drive the hydro-generator to generate electricity. However, due to the geographical location, it is difficult to popularize pumped storage on a large scale.In terms of policy, in recent years, the power grid responded to the decision of the Energy Bureau and the National Development and Reform Commission to reduce the wind and light rejection rate, and used the flexibility of the power system to absorb new energy, so that the wind and light rejection rate was reduced to 2%. At the same time, the power grid pressure is prominent, and some provinces begin to require power supply side to configure energy storage. With the publication of heavy documents in several energy storage industries, energy storage has ushered in a historic development opportunity.4. New energy vehicles turn to product driveAt present, pure electric vehicle (BEV) and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) have become the main development routes of new energy vehicles. According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of 2022, 2.484 million new energy vehicles were sold, including 1.976 million pure electric vehicles, 534,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles and 1400 fuel cell vehicles, accounting for 79.55%, 21.50% and 0.06% respectively. Among them, fuel cell vehicles are still in the early stage of promotion, and the sales volume is low.In addition, the sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the first half of the year increased by 110% and 168.34% respectively, and the growth rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles was slightly higher than that of pure electric vehicles, which also became an important development direction of new energy vehicles. After the slow growth in 2019-2020, the sales of new energy vehicles have exploded since 2021. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars increased by 167.6% year-on-year in 2021, and the high-speed growth trend continued in the first half of 2022, with the sales volume increasing by 117.89% year-on-year and the penetration rate reaching 23.99%.Time Business School believes that new energy vehicles are in the stage from policy-driven to product-driven. In the early days, the competitiveness of new energy vehicles was relatively weak, and the infrastructure was not perfect, so the sales depended on the subsidy policy. With the improvement of product competitiveness, the positive cycle brought by the increase of ownership and the improvement of charging facilities, although subsidies are decreasing, new energy vehicles have entered the product-driven stage, and it is expected that the high growth rate will last for a long time.From the specific data, according to the statistics of China Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, the number of public charging piles in China continues to grow at a high speed, from 49,500 at the end of 2015 to 1,635,800 at the end of September 2022, and the charging convenience has been significantly improved. In addition to charging facilities, the progress of battery fast charging technology has also significantly enhanced the convenience of charging. According to public information, many electric vehicles can replenish 80% of the battery capacity within 30 minutes, and some models can even replenish 200 kilometers of battery life within 10 minutes.It is expected that with the continuous progress of battery technology and the continuous improvement of fast charging facilities, the disadvantage of long charging time for new energy electric vehicles will be further overcome, and the cost advantage of charging will be further highlighted, which will further increase the sales of electric vehicles. In addition, in the past two years, due to the price increase of upstream raw materials, the price of electric vehicles has increased slightly. It is expected that with the expansion of the industrial chain, the price of electric vehicles will still have room for decline, and its price advantage over fuel vehicles will be further expanded.5. The global competitiveness of China's new energy industry has improved, and the export volume of products has increased greatly.The explosive growth of domestic sales of new energy vehicles has also led to a large increase in exports. According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the export volume of new energy vehicles in China reached 309,600 in 2021 (including pure electric, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell passenger cars and commercial vehicles), a year-on-year increase of 345.5%. From January to September, 2022, China exported 2.117 million vehicles, up 55.5% year-on-year. In the same period, China exported 391,100 new energy vehicles, up 100.6% year-on-year, continuing the high growth rate since 2021 and significantly higher than the overall automobile industry.New energy vehicles are welcoming the tide of going to sea, which is related to the increasingly prominent advantages of China's new energy vehicle industry. China's new energy automobile industry has obvious overall advantages in the production cost and production efficiency of core components of new energy vehicles such as batteries, motors and electronic controls, and the industrial chain is complete, which has created the core advantages of China's new energy automobile enterprises in export transformation. Compared with new energy vehicles, China's photovoltaic industry is in an absolute leading position in the world. Qiao Yueshan, director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed that in 2021, the output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components in the main links of China's photovoltaic industry chain reached 506,000 tons, 226.6 GW, 197.9 GW and 181.8 GW respectively, accounting for more than 70% of the global output.After a period of downturn in 2012-2018, the export volume of China's photovoltaic products has been increasing in recent years. Take solar cells as an example. In 2021, the export value of solar cells in China increased by 43.8% year-on-year to US$ 28.459 billion. From January to August 2022, the growth rate further increased to 91.2%, and the export value exceeded that of last year.
Article source: Time Business School
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